In all my years of betting on sports, I’ve had both dismal failure and very good success. I had to go through the first to get to the second. According to statistics, 98% of all sports bettors lose money over the course of a season. That means the vast majority of the bettors are getting stuck between success and failure, with failure ultimately winning out.
I’ve often asked the titled question. Just why is it that 98% of the people lose. When I was one of those who lost all the time, I was clueless as to what the answer was. Now that I have learned how to win, I can look back and see how simple it really is to get from bankroll churning to consistently pocketing some cash.
The question remaining was why do so many not get it, when it is really so simple. As with most things, beginners learn from experts. In many cases, as time goes by, what the experts of the old days thought was right was not right at all. In fact, they based everything they knew and taught on a false premise and were totally backwards in their thinking.
Could that be the case with sports betting? Could it be possible that all of the experts are wrong about everything they believe and practice? Is it possible that because of a lot of dedication and talent, the so-called experts can make the old way work for them despite it’s flawed assumptions while the same methods and dedication slowly drain your bankroll because of them?
And if any of that is possible, or is even the actual case, what would that flawed assumption be?
Somewhere along the way from losing to winning, I came to realize that the experts were wrong all along. That, in fact, hours of study could overcome the flaw of their starting point and give them an advantage over the books. But, that is something most people can not do.
Many times, if you look at expert picks or subscribe to a service, will pick favorites at up to -190. Most of the rest of the time they are betting against spreads at -110. Every now and then they will throw in a dog or two. Because that is what the experts are doing, it must be right, don’t you think?
Let’ not ask if it is right or wrong to bet that way. Instead, let’s look at the ultimate result of betting that way. You have to win more than 50% of your bets to show a profit. By doing that you put the book at a huge monetary advantage, and yourself at a huge disadvantage.
There is no value in a line that requires more risk than the potential reward. That there is or can be is the flawed assumption of the experts, past and present.
The failure to realize that is why the vast majority of the people lose money. They see the experts doing certain things and think it is the right way. Betting on a negative line is a losing proposition from the start.
If you want to make any money betting on sports, you have to get good returns on every bet you win. I like to stay in the area of +150 to +190. Any time you can find a team with a winning record and that kind of payout, you have the potential for a good bet. By betting ONLY on positive lines, you put yourself at a monetary advantage over the books that makes profiting so much easier.
So why do people lose so much money betting on sports? It’s because they bet lines with little to no value that require them to win more than 50% of their bets to show any kind of profit.
Sports betting is the only gambling venue that allows you to make the rules for the payouts. In that situation, does it really make sense to risk more than you can win? If you went up to a blackjack table and had a choice to get the blackjack payout for every hand you win, or to give the dealer 10% of your winnings, what would you do?
98% of all sports bettors lose money because they choose to pay the dealer. Now that you have the proper perspective on the game, you will find it much easier to profit.